利用综合评分方法评估CMIP5模式对北极海冰的模拟能力     

吴利萍  杨小怡  胡建宇 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(9):48-58

北极海冰冰盖自20世纪以来经历了前所未有的缩减，这使得北极海冰异常对大气环流的反馈作用日益显现。尽管目前的气候模式模拟北极海冰均为减少的趋势，但各模式间仍然存在较大的分散性。为了评估模式对于北极海冰变化及其气候效应的模拟能力，我们将海冰线性趋势和年际异常两者结合起来构造了一种合理的衡量指标。我们还强调巴伦支与卡拉海的重要性，因为前人研究证明此区域海冰异常是近年来影响大尺度大气环流变异的关键因子。根据我们设定的标准，CMIP5模式对海冰的模拟可被归为三种类型。这三组多模式集合平均之间存在巨大的差异，验证了这种分组方法的合理性。此外，我们还进一步探讨了造成模式海冰模拟能力差别的潜在物理因子。结果表明模式所采用的臭氧资料集对海冰模拟能力有显著的影响。  相似文献   

2016年夏季南海海盆水体颗粒物粒径分布特征*     

郑文迪  周雯  曹文熙  王桂芬  邓霖  徐文龙  许占堂  李彩  蔡建南 《热带海洋学报》2018,37(5):74-85

颗粒物粒径分布(Particle Size Distribution, PSD)代表了颗粒物浓度与颗粒物粒径之间的关系, 影响着海洋生态环境和水体光学特性等。文章基于2016年夏季航次调查的生物光学剖面数据, 研究了南海海盆海域PSD的分布特征。研究发现, 幂律函数可以较好地拟合南海海盆区域的PSD, 对数空间中的实测的PSD与模拟的PSD平均决定系数高达0.95。PSD斜率(ξ)的分布范围为[1.27, 7.65], 均值为3.93±0.56。南海海盆区域表层水体的ξ均值与全球大洋表层水体的ξ均值相近, 但高于海湾等表层水体的ξ均值。ξ能较好地表征颗粒物平均粒径D_A的大小, 两者存在明显负相关关系, 即ξ值越高, D_A越小; 反之, D_A越大。通过分析T1断面的生物光学剖面数据及总体平均的PSD剖面数据, 发现PSD剖面分布特征如下: 1)表层水体的ξ值相对较高, 且D_A值相对较低, 推测可能是由于微微型藻类为主导颗粒物所致; 2) ξ值极小值层出现在次表层叶绿素浓度极大值层(Subsurface Chlorophyll Maximum Layer, SCML)中, 并伴随D_A极大值层的出现, 其原因可能是SCML中的大粒径浮游植物占比显著增加; 3)弱光层中的ξ值较SCML中的高, 但略低于表层的ξ值, 而D_A则位于表层与SCML的D_A之间, 这可能与浮游植物及其碎屑的絮凝、分解、沉降等过程相关。PSD特征影响着海水的固有光学特性, 分析发现: 由于SCML中的叶绿素浓度增加, 颗粒物散射系数(b_p(532))和颗粒物后向散射系数(b_bp(532))也相应呈现显著增加的趋势。弱光层中的平均b_p(532)与平均b_bp(532)最小。ξ与颗粒物衰减光谱斜率之间呈高分散性, Boss 等(2001b)的模型适合用于粗略估算区域性的ξ分布范围及均值。  相似文献   

长山群岛海洋渔业资源的平均营养级变化特征     

孙才志  曹威威  肖春柳 《海洋通报》2019,38(1):87-95

根据长山群岛 1965-2016 年渔业统计资料，分析长山群岛海域主要捕捞渔获物产量、平均营养级 （Mean trophic level， MTL）、渔业均衡指数 （Fishing in balance index，FiB） 年际变化，探讨其海洋渔业资源利用状况，并利用小波分析方法研究52年来渔获物 MTL 周期变化特征。研究表明： （1） 长山群岛捕捞产量、MTL 和 FiB 指数呈阶段性变化； （2） 长山群岛渔业资源开发经历初期开发、扩张捕捞、过度捕捞、资源破坏等四个阶段，渔业资源环境正在逐渐恶化；（3） 受人类捕捞活动影响，MTL 在 15~19 年和 24~34 年两种时间尺度下呈周期波动，30 年为第一主周期，17 年为第二主周期。长山群岛渔业资源破坏日益严重，未来几年平均营养级将呈下降趋势。为防止渔业资源进一步衰退，应加强捕捞活动管理力度，落实海洋渔业资源保护制度；完善预警机制，构建海洋渔业资源监测系统；同时应积极调整长山群岛渔业产业结构，提高资源产出效率.  相似文献   

The variation and controls of mean transit times in Australian headwater catchments     

Ian Cartwright  Uwe Morgenstern  William Howcroft  Harald Hofmann  Robin Armit  Michael Stewart  Chad Burton  Dylan Irvine 《水文研究》2020,34(21):4034-4048

Determining mean transit times in headwater catchments is critical for understanding catchment functioning and understanding their responses to changes in landuse or climate. Determining whether mean transit times (MTTs) correlate with drainage density, slope angle, area, or land cover permits a better understanding of the controls on water flow through catchments and allows first-order predictions of MTTs in other catchments to be made. This study assesses whether there are identifiable controls on MTTs determined using ³H in headwater catchments of southeast Australia. Despite MTTs at baseflow varying from a few years to >100 years, it was difficult to predict MTTs using single or groups of readily-measured catchment attributes. The lack of readily-identifiable correlations hampers the prediction of MTTs in adjacent catchments even where these have similar geology, land use, and topography. The long MTTs of the Australian headwater catchments are probably in part due to the catchments having high storage volumes in deeply-weathered regolith, combined with low recharge rates due to high evapotranspiration. However, the difficulty in estimating storage volumes at the catchment scale hampers the use of this parameter to estimate MTTs. The runoff coefficient (the fraction of rainfall exported via the stream) is probably also controlled by evapotranspiration and recharge rates. Correlations between the runoff coefficient and MTTs in individual catchments allow predictions of MTTs in nearby catchments to be made. MTTs are shorter in high rainfall periods as the catchments wet up and shallow water stores are mobilized. Despite the contribution of younger water, the major ion geochemistry in individual catchments commonly does not correlate with MTTs, probably reflecting heterogeneous reactions and varying degrees of evapotranspiration. Documenting MTTs in catchments with high storage volumes and/or low recharge rates elsewhere is important for understanding MTTs in diverse environments.  相似文献   

结合IR-MAD与均值漂移算法的密集城区遥感影像变化检测     

聂倩  赵艳福 《测绘通报》2020,(6):57-62

不同时相遥感影像变化检测已成为土地利用变更调查、城市扩张分析、自然灾害分析及其他环境问题必不可少的技术手段之一。本文提出了一种结合IR-MAD与均值漂移算法的密集城区遥感影像变化检测方法。该方法通过伪不变特征法完成两期影像的相对辐射校正，有效改善影像间的配准误差，并利用IR-MAD算法对校正后的影像进行迭代运算，采用均值漂移算法对迭代后的影像进行分割，同时运用形态学方法处理分割后的影像，最终提取变化图斑。试验结果表明，该方法可以有效检测出变化区域，可应用于城市地表覆盖的变化检测。  相似文献   

沉积物干容重分析及其沉积学意义:以东海内陆架海区为例     

薛成凤  盛辉  魏东运  杨阳  汪亚平  贾建军 《海洋与湖沼》2020,51(5):1093-1107

干容重是沉积学研究中用于计算物质通量的一个重要参量,对于正确认识沉积物的收支平衡、源汇通量以及地貌演化等问题具有重要意义。然而,干容重的分析流程和计算方法仍然缺乏统一的规范,导致干容重的取值不尽合理,影响了沉积学研究的定量化和精准度,这个问题需要引起足够的重视。本文选取了东海内陆架的表层沉积物和柱状沉积物,运用实验测试和间接公式计算两种方法获得了沉积物的干容重,对比分析了两种方法的精准度。研究发现,东海内陆架的细颗粒沉积物的干容重的数值范围是1.1—1.5g/cm~3;影响沉积物干容重的主要因素是沉积物的成分与粒度,前者通过颗粒态物质的密度起作用,后者通过孔隙度来影响。建议:干容重的分析测试工作应在采样后尽快完成;运用干容重进行沉积通量计算时,应根据沉积物的平均粒度和孔隙度的空间变化选择合适的数值,以获得更加合理的结果。  相似文献   

气候变化对东北大西洋渔获物组成、多样性和营养级的影响     

陈爽  陈新军 《海洋学报》2020,42(10):100-109

东北大西洋是世界上重要的捕捞海域，气候变化对该海域捕捞产生了重要的影响。本文基于联合国粮农组织所提供的1982?2016年东北大西洋渔获产量数据，对该海域渔获物组成、多样性、平均营养级及主成分变化特征进行时间序列上的分析，并结合东北大西洋海域气候、环境因子，应用广义可加模型探究渔获物组成与气候变化之间的关系。结果显示:渔获物多样性的变化总体上呈下降趋势，2002?2010年间处于较低水平；平均营养级在2002年之前呈平缓下降的趋势，2002年之后开始波动上升，相关性分析表明这两个指标与海域环境因子的变化较为相关。对渔获物组成进行主成分分析显示，第一主成份变化的方差解释率达到35.3%，且与海域气候、环境因素有较高的相关性，第一主成分变化能够较好地表征气候影响下渔获物组成变化的情况。广义可加模型分析结果显示，渔获物组成变化的影响因素按解释率由高到低分别为:海表温度、海平面高度、盐度、海冰和北大西洋涛动指数。该研究有助于认识气候变化对海洋渔业资源及其结构组成的影响。  相似文献   

Streamwater ages in nested,seasonally cold Canadian watersheds     

Samuel Bansah  Genevieve Ali 《水文研究》2019,33(4):495-511

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An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)     

Roberta Padulano  Alfredo Reder  Guido Rianna 《水文研究》2019,33(14):2020-2036

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.  相似文献   

Identification of groundwater mean transit times of precipitation and riverbank infiltration by two‐component lumped parameter models     

Nguyen Le Duy  Nguyen Viet Dung  Ingo Heidbüchel  Hanno Meyer  Markus Weiler  Bruno Merz  Heiko Apel 《水文研究》2019,33(24):3098-3118

Groundwater transit time is an essential hydrologic metric for groundwater resources management. However, especially in tropical environments, studies on the transit time distribution (TTD) of groundwater infiltration and its corresponding mean transit time (mTT) have been extremely limited due to data sparsity. In this study, we primarily use stable isotopes to examine the TTDs and their mTTs of both vertical and horizontal infiltration at a riverbank infiltration area in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD), representative of the tropical climate in Asian monsoon regions. Precipitation, river water, groundwater, and local ponding surface water were sampled for 3 to 9 years and analysed for stable isotopes (δ¹⁸O and δ²H), providing a unique data set of stable isotope records for a tropical region. We quantified the contribution that the two sources contributed to the local shallow groundwater by a novel concept of two‐component lumped parameter models (LPMs) that are solved using δ¹⁸O records. The study illustrates that two‐component LPMs, in conjunction with hydrological and isotopic measurements, are able to identify subsurface flow conditions and water mixing at riverbank infiltration systems. However, the predictive skill and the reliability of the models decrease for locations farther from the river, where recharge by precipitation dominates, and a low‐permeable aquitard layer above the highly permeable aquifer is present. This specific setting impairs the identifiability of model parameters. For river infiltration, short mTTs (<40 weeks) were determined for sites closer to the river (<200 m), whereas for the precipitation infiltration, the mTTs were longer (>80 weeks) and independent of the distance to the river. The results not only enhance the understanding of the groundwater recharge dynamics in the VMD but also suggest that the highly complex mechanisms of surface–groundwater interaction can be conceptualized by exploiting two‐component LPMs in general. The model concept could thus be a powerful tool for better understanding both the hydrological functioning of mixing processes and the movement of different water components in riverbank infiltration systems.  相似文献